By Justin Madders

MP for Ellesmere Port

As we enter 2024 I would like to wish all my constituents a Happy New Year and as is now customary I will devote my first column of the year to a preview/prediction of the year ahead.

Obviously the one thing we can be certain of this year is that a General Election will be called (although strictly speaking the actual vote might not take place until January 2025). The political world has been full of speculation as to when it will be called with the announcement last week that the Spring Budget will take place a little earlier than normal leading many to conclude that the election will take place in May. I am less certain that it will be then with an Autumn election to my mind being more likely although I wouldn’t rule out it being called in June. With so much talk about when the election will take place there is actually less focus on what the outcome will be with most commentators expecting the current strong Labour poll lead to mean a Labour victory. Whilst I am clearly optimistic given our current position I am also conscious of the fact that politics is extremely volatile and that polls often narrow the closer election day looms.

One large factor in the date of the election will be how the economy is faring and the news just before Christmas that the revised GDP figures for July to September showed the economy contracted by 0.1% meaning that there is a real risk that the UK will be in recession at the start of 2024. Even if a technical recession is avoided the best we can hope for at the moment is that the economy will be stagnant although the rapid falls in inflation towards the end of 2023 is far more positive economic news. If inflation continues to fall at a similar pace then that may well lead to a reduction in interest rates in the first half of the year, bringing relief to some mortgage payers. I suspect that there will actually be a few more bumps in the road before inflation stays at consistently low levels.

There will also be an election in November 2024 in the United States which despite the difficulties both face is set to be a re-run of the 2020 election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Readers will not be surprised to learn that I will be hoping for a Biden victory. One of the many risks a return to the Presidency of Donald Trump would be a possible end to the United State’s support for Ukraine in their fight to eject Russia forces from their country. We cannot afford for Putin to succeed and so continued diplomatic efforts need to be maintained to ensure Ukraine continues to get the aid it needs. Diplomacy must also play a big part in bringing peace to Gaza and finding a lasting solution that enables Israel and Palestine to live side by side without the violence which sadly at the moment seems never ending.

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